Is NRG a Buy? NRG Stock Analysis & Fair Value (2026)

Our model currently rates NRG as a Sell.

Get the latest investment score, DCF valuation, and buy/sell/hold insights for NRG (NRG).

Last Analyzed: 13/01/2026

Stock Analysis & Score Explanation

NRG (NRG)
$150.62
Fundament Score Analysis
52.62/100
Fair Value Analysis
Current Price
$150.62
Fair Value
$98.28
Overvalued by 34.8%
Sell recommendation based on:
  • Fundament Score Analysis
  • Fair Value Analysis
  • Industry Trend
Confidence Level: /10

Fair Value Analysis

Weighted Fair Value

$98.28

Based on Multiple Valuation Methods (Weighted Average)

Current Price

$150.62

Overvalued by 34.75%

Individual Valuation Methods:

Current free cash flow is zero or negative
N/A
Invalid fair value calculation result
N/A
Available
$98.28
Invalid fair value calculation result
N/A

DCF Model Assumptions:

Growth Rate: %
Discount Rate: %
Terminal Growth: %
Projection: years

Stock Analysis & Score Explanation

This stock receives a score of 52.62/100 with a Sell recommendation. Financial health scored 31.57/55, competitive position 7/25, macro risk assessment 8.34/10, and risk-adjusted returns 5.71/10. The analysis considers current market conditions and fundamental metrics. This score reflects the financial health, growth potential, and overall valuation of the stock, helping investors determine whether it may be overvalued or undervalued. Learn more about the AInvestor Score and how it is calculated. See how we convert scores and fair-value signals into actionable labels in the AInvestor Recommendation glossary entry.

Overvalued by 34.75%. Our detailed stock valuation analysis indicates that overvalued at current market prices by 34.75%. The weighted fair value of $98.28 is calculated using multiple proven valuation methods, including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Peter Lynch Fair Value, Trading Multiples P/E, and Earnings Power Value (EPV). This comprehensive stock analysis is designed to guide informed investment decisions.

Industry Context: Utilities

Defensive
📈 Positive

2026 Trend: 📈 Positive Outlook

Positive outlook supported by AI data center power demand requiring massive grid expansion, regulated rate-base growth providing inflation protection, and renewable energy transition. Rising rates pressure valuation multiples but benefit underlying business models.

Bubble Watch: Rate Sensitivity

Utilities valued as fixed-income proxy. If yields rise or growth disappointment occurs, valuations could compress. Rising rates benefit business model but hurt investor returns.

Key 2026 Outlook Points

  • Grid modernization and resilience becomes regulatory priority
  • Data center demand transforms utility topology and investment profile
  • Battery storage integration solving renewable intermittency
  • Real-time pricing mechanisms and smart grid technology adoption