Is MPC a Buy? MPC Stock Analysis & Fair Value (2026)
Our model currently rates MPC as a Hold.
Get the latest investment score, DCF valuation, and buy/sell/hold insights for MPC (MPC).
Stock Analysis & Score Explanation
- ✓Fundament Score Analysis
- ✓Fair Value Analysis
- ✓Industry Trend
Fair Value Analysis
Weighted Fair Value
$152.74
Based on Multiple Valuation Methods (Weighted Average)
Current Price
$176.49
Individual Valuation Methods:
DCF Model Assumptions:
Stock Analysis & Score Explanation
This stock receives a score of 66.60/100 with a Hold recommendation. Financial health scored 42.27/55, competitive position 9.25/25, macro risk assessment 8.34/10, and risk-adjusted returns 6.75/10. The analysis considers current market conditions and fundamental metrics. This score reflects the financial health, growth potential, and overall valuation of the stock, helping investors determine whether it may be overvalued or undervalued. Learn more about the AInvestor Score and how it is calculated. See how we convert scores and fair-value signals into actionable labels in the AInvestor Recommendation glossary entry.
Overvalued by 13.45%. Our detailed stock valuation analysis indicates that overvalued at current market prices by 13.45%. The weighted fair value of $152.74 is calculated using multiple proven valuation methods, including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Peter Lynch Fair Value, Trading Multiples P/E, and Earnings Power Value (EPV). This comprehensive stock analysis is designed to guide informed investment decisions.
Industry Context: Energy
2026 Trend: ↔️ Neutral Outlook
Neutral outlook balances resilient demand from AI data centers and industrial electrification against long-term stranded asset risks from energy transition. Near-term commodity volatility and cash return profiles offset by transition uncertainty.
Bubble Watch: Stranded Asset Risk
Traditional fossil fuel infrastructure could become economically obsolete as electrification accelerates. Companies slow to transition face long-term value destruction.
Key 2026 Outlook Points
- →AI data center power demand drives grid modernization and reliability needs
- →Energy security becomes geopolitical priority (LNG, baseload)
- →Renewable energy + grid storage solving intermittency challenges
- →Oil majors capture hydrogen and carbon capture as new growth verticals