AINVESTOR

Is MCD a Buy? McDonald's Stock Analysis & Fair Value (2026)

Our model currently rates MCD as a Hold.

Get the latest investment score, DCF valuation, and buy/sell/hold insights for McDonald's Corp (MCD).

Last Analyzed: 28/02/2026

Stock Analysis & Score Explanation

McDonald's Corp (MCD)
$341.06
Fundament Score Analysis
65.54/100
Fair Value Analysis
Current Price
$341.06
Fair Value
$228.80
Overvalued by 32.9%
Hold recommendation based on:
  • ✓Fundament Score Analysis
  • ✓Fair Value Analysis
  • ✓Industry Context:
Confidence Level: –/10

Fair Value Analysis

Weighted Fair Value

$228.80

Based on Multiple Valuation Methods (Weighted Average)

Current Price

$341.06

Overvalued by 32.92%

Individual Valuation Methods:

Discounted Cash FlowOpen Discounted Cash Flow definition
Available
$284.32
Peter Lynch Fair ValueOpen Peter Lynch Fair Value definition
Available
$163.03
Trading Multiples PEOpen Trading Multiples PE definition
Available
$239.05
Earnings Power ValueOpen Earnings Power Value definition
Insufficient data for this calculation
N/A

DCF Model Assumptions:

Growth Rate: 9.21%
Discount Rate: 8.6%
Terminal Growth: 3.5%
Projection: 5 years

Stock Analysis & Score Explanation

This stock receives a score of 65.54/100 with a Hold recommendation. Financial health scored 38.97/55, competitive position 14.5/25, macro risk assessment 8.34/10, and risk-adjusted returns 3.73/10. The analysis considers current market conditions and fundamental metrics. This score reflects the financial health, growth potential, and overall valuation of the stock, helping investors determine whether it may be overvalued or undervalued. Learn more about the AInvestor Score and how it is calculated. See how we convert scores and fair-value signals into actionable labels in the AInvestor Recommendation glossary entry.

Overvalued by 32.92%. Our detailed stock valuation analysis indicates that overvalued at current market prices by 32.92%. The weighted fair value of $228.80 is calculated using multiple proven valuation methods, including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Peter Lynch Fair Value, Trading Multiples P/E, and Earnings Power Value (EPV). This comprehensive stock analysis is designed to guide informed investment decisions.

Industry Context: Consumer Discretionary

Cyclical
📉 Negative

2026 Trend: 📉 Negative

Mixed outlook with positive tailwinds from wealth effects and e-commerce penetration balanced against recession risks and softening consumer demand.

Bubble Watch: Consumer Leverage Peak

Luxury goods and travel sector may be hyped based on high-net-worth consumer spending vulnerable to wealth decline during market downturns.

Key 2026 Outlook Points

  • →AI-driven personalization improving customer experience and conversion
  • →Sustainable shopping becoming mainstream among younger consumers
  • →Metaverse and virtual fashion creating new consumer experiences
  • →Fintech offerings changing retail and payment options
View full sector analysis & deep insights →